The dark clouds of COVID-19 and feeble South Asia: buckle up!

The dark clouds of COVID-19 and feeble South Asia: buckle up! 

 by: Muhammad Ali Nutkani

When the talks of rise of Asia, particularly of China were echoing all across the globe, the novel threat of Corona Virus aka COVID-19 had shown up. None has ever thought that the world would be witnessing such a pandemic that would baffle the international and national platforms alike. The countries which are too vulnerable to this situation are the world's least developed countries (LDCs). According to World Economic Forum, 900 million people are at risk from coronavirus.

Likewise, the countries in South Asia would suffer more and could hamper the expected rise of Asia. South Asia is of great importance, half of the top 10 most densely populated cities in the world—Dhaka, Chennai, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Kathmandu—are located in South Asia.

 "This is a ray of hope for the SAARC to come as a powerful organization. Pakistan has not yet made any contribution and was sought to have gone for the consent with China over the SAARC fund. Pakistan should go with all states of the region."

2020 has not been good so far for South Asia: growth is marred by the political instability; Afghanistan conundrum; communal riots in India; Asia’s demographic dilemma; Pakistan’s CPEC issues; Asia’s refugee crisis -Afghanistan and Myanmar; and much more mammoth problems. What would happen to these already-fragile states amid the recent COVID19 threat? Obviously, it would have drastic effects on the Asian region. Firstly, it would affect the economy of Asia and particularly of China; China is the source of imports for 9 out of 10 Southeast Asian countries. By the trade being halted, China would suffer and the effects could go beyond Asia as well. Further, some economy pundits suggest that China’s economy may shrink for the first time since 1970s. This could ultimately effect Pakistan as Islamabad is connected with Beijing in financial terms. And according to the Pakistan’s ministry of planning, two crore people will be getting unemployed.

Secondly, it would socially disturb the fabric of region; shortage of things could urge masses to adopt illegal means for their survival. Likewise, ban on religious gathering would give hatemongers a chance to incite the impulse of violence.  

Thirdly, it would have grave implications on national politics. National and international institutions are facing criticism alike. Criticism on Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro ; suspension of activities in parliaments of countries ; dismissal of administrators of Communist Party of China (CPC) ; skirmishes within EU ; delayed election in Syria ; and criticism on Pakistan’s PM  Imran khan are some worth mentioning examples. Beside this, there is a growing pressure on national governments to deal with the situation, which is making international institutions less valuable. Moreover, the already-fragile regional organization SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) would become more sluggish amid the constraints on cooperation among countries.  

Last but not the least, regional peace would further deteriorate due to the pandemic. On the international front, lack of cooperation is in vogue because of the nationalistic wave in the recent years. It seems like that global leadership has gone into quarantine when the world is in dire need to be rescued. Moreover, the confirmed case in Bangladesh’s Cox Bazar has panicked the aid workers. This could hamper the international efforts to curb the virus menace. The point is that if international cooperation is fraying then it would be viable to foster regional cooperation. South Asian nations must brace themselves to counter the threat with unprecedented level of cooperation. The intention of Narinder Modi to call the leaders of SAARC to “chalk out a strategy” to combat the virus is a positive trajectory for SAARC nations. He proposed for the Emergency Fund for the region to fight the pandemic. India has announced US$10 million as its initial contribution; Bangladesh US$1.5 million; Nepal and Afghanistan each announced that they would contribute US$1 million; Srilanka pledged to give US$5 million. This is a ray of hope for the SAARC to come as a powerful organization. Pakistan has not yet made any contribution and was sought to have gone for the consent with China over the SAARC fund. Pakistan should go with all states of the region. 

This is a vital time for South Asian states to rise and prove to be more cooperative than EU which is itself in crisis. Whatever motive Modi has behind this SAARC move, it could help Pakistan and China too because Pakistan is inept in dealing with the crisis due to ample socio-economic reasons. Although the cases in South Asian subcontinent are not more than 500, but tenable measures are needed to prevent it. So, to fight the pandemic, Asians must adopt short terms and long terms measures. Short terms measures include: states must make tests affordable and extensive; tracing and isolating; early social distancing; and making individuals to realize the situation. 

While long terms measures include: strengthening the national and regional platforms; need to change thinking from geostrategic to geoeconomic ; focus on technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) ; progressive taxation ; and more focus on Human Development Index. Moreover, if Asia wants its rise then China is the biggest player with state-capitalism. In the present situation, countries are adopting the China’s way: Government control. 

This could help China to confront “Washington Consensus” with the “Beijing Consensus”. This could help Asia to keep on their rise while West is struggling with the version of globalization it had created. Further, it is unknown that for how long EU and USA will be on lockdown effecting the global trade and ultimately the ASEAN states. So, cooperation between SAARC and ASEAN could provide some cushion to the issue in future. The globalization has been already on the way of shifting from West to East; virus has now acted as an impetus. Hesitations of West in cooperating with East are no longer hold logic because West has to cooperate as virus sees no boundaries. 

Moreover, failure of the West in dealing with the corona virus and better performance of East is manifesting that this could be the Asian century or more specifically -Chinese century. The only thing is that for how long Asia could hold it amid ample other issues. Lastly, closing borders won’t be viable for long terms as global problems need global solutions

~Muhammad Ali Nutkani

The author is member of 'Board of Directors, The Global Tidings and a security analyst

Disclaimer: Global Tidings is an initiative to evolve the culture of research in Pakistan.
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